If You Are Not Leading or Specializing — You Are Following

As we continue to move into an emerging economy where traditional, place and schedule-based learning competes against flexibility and digital learning experiences — and it will — I have come to a basic conclusion.

If your institution does not possess a leading market position, or enjoys true speciality capabilities in an area, it may find that it will move to a follower role.

Let me explain what I mean.

I am deeply concerned that we currently have too many over-generalized, non-distinct, over-priced, inflexible, smallish private schools and colleges, with limited resources. They are all trying to find a way to preserve a past that is declining. There simply won’t be room for all of them.

I predict four camps will emerge that will serve to define schools and colleges in the future.

Innovators.
These schools and colleges get it. They read the tea leaves and got ahead of the curve. Early bird get the worm, as they say. They planned – or are doing so now – with great courage and audacity. They took risks to diversify their access points, from price to location to delivery model, and therefore they diversified their audiences. They challenged the status quo by redefining time (schedule), assessment (credentials), and community (location). Most importantly, they are pulling a Wayne Gretzky: they skate to where the puck is going, not where it is. They will not only make it in the future, but they will drive best practices of the model. As a cohort, they will lead, disrupt and punch above their weight.

Adaptors.
These schools and colleges get it – sort of. They understand that times are changing but they have systems and structures that they perceive are too great of barriers to change at this time. They want to adapt to a changing world, but they worry that they may not be able to manage the internal change to do so. Some of these schools and colleges are current market leaders and possess large resources and big brands that they perceive will bring them through the challenges. They hope they can adapt over a period of time, hoping to implement gradual change that everyone can agree upon. Many will make it – some will get smaller over time. As a cohort, they will follow a safe and proven path and receive incremental results.

Preservationists.
This group of schools and colleges don’t get it. They are intrinsically tied to old models and structures. They believe that there is such inherent value in their type of educational experience that they will not adapt, let alone innovate. These are the organizations that claim that marketing will save the day and that “if we just told our story better, people will flock to us.” They will spend a great deal of resources to preserve their model as they get smaller. Their market share will erode and public confidence will, as well. Some will pass away. As a cohort, they will attempt to preserve an an outdated model, somehow thinking that they will be able to resurrect their glory days.

Fatalities.
Unfortunately, there are a group of expensive, small, overgeneralized, non-distinct schools and colleges that will die. They don’t have the innovative chops, distinctive programs, or large reserves to manage through an inflection point of this size. At one time, they were valid competitors and provided a solid education. But, unfortunately, they never received a transformational gift or extraordinary success in any one signature program. As a cohort, they will die slow and, in some cases, painful deaths.

I see these four camps playing out during the next five years. I am deeply concerned about the future of our education industry, especially since many schools and colleges have failed or will fail to adapt to a changing set of circumstances. If there is a “Blockbuster moment” for those organizations, it is right now. None of us wants to see schools and colleges struggle; we want to see them thrive, so that their students thrive.

Expect to see more of this, folks. The consolidation and contraction of this moment in time is real. It will continue. There will be winners (those that innovate) and there will be losers (those that die). And, in the middle will be those just trying to adapt but not leading in any way.

And, if there is anything that I have learned in my 35 year career so far it is simple: If you are not the leader in something that matters, your future is likely in jeopardy.